Prevision of biomass, yield and water productivity for soft and durum wheat in Setif region using Aquacrop under SSPscenarios

Abstract

Algeria’s food security in the upcoming years is threatened by the anticipated climate change, so the study aims to employing the AquaCrop crop model under SSP1.9, SSP4.5, and SSP8.5 of the experimental site situated in the Eastern High Plains of Algeria Setif to examine the effects of climate change on the rainfed durum and soft wheat cultivar known as Oued el bard and El Wifek sucssively. The model also has been calibrated using meteoro-logical, pedological, phenological paramètres, and yield, biomass, canopy cover and soil water content data observed over a period spanning three cycles, from 2021–2022 to 2023–2024. The model has been calibrated, validated, and parametrized for the prediction of wheat grain yields and was then used to simulate, biomasse, water productivity and yield wheat at the study site for short-term (2020–2039) and medium-term (2040–2059) periods in compa-rison to a reference period (1995–2014). AquaCrop was confirmed to replicate the yields of the Oued el lberd and El Wifek cultivars with a high degree of accuracy (RMSE = 0.34 et RMSE = 0.60). For both cultivars of durum and soft wheat, it is anticipated that the average wheat grain yield will increase by+136.67%; +161.33 % and 176.67%; +28.38%, +62..16%, +89.19 % under SSP1.9, SSP4.5, and SSP8.5, respectively in 2020–2039 and by 153.33%; +269.17%, +369.76% ; +41.89% , +75.68 % and +109.46% in 2040-2059 under SSP1.9, SSP4.5, and SSP8.5, succsively compared to the average yield of the baseline period (1995–2014), which was estimated to be 6 t/ha and 7.4 t/ha for durum and soft wheat succsively. The increase in CO2 concentrations fertilizes the production of rainfed wheat. This effect offsets the adverse effects of rising temperatures and falling precipitation. Under three SSPs scenarios, an increase in wheat water productivity and biomass is anticipated. Overall, the simulation results demonstrated that the AquaCrop model is suitable for simulating the ef-fects of climatic stress on the productivity of cultures in the zones pluvial agriculture, which could benefit in making decisions on water productivity and cultural adaptation to future climatic trends in semi-arid conditions.